Will Trump win 2024 election?

It is certainly possible that Donald Trump may try to run for president of the United States again in 2024. Indeed, it is quite possible that Trump may run again in 2024 and win. Nonetheless, I do not think he will run and, in fact, I suspect that his personal involvement in politics in general will most likely not last much longer.

The fact of the matter is that Donald Trump is currently seventy-five years old. In 2024—assuming, of course, that he is still alive—he will be seventy-eight years old, nearly a decade older than he was when he ran for president in 2016. Running for president is an extraordinarily physically and mentally arduous undertaking. It requires travelling all over the country to campaign, constantly giving speeches and interviews, participating in debates, and all kinds of planning and preparation. Trump might be able to do it, but it would probably be much harder on him than it was the first time.

Furthermore, if Trump were to run for president in 2024, win, and serve out a full four-year term, then, by the end of his second term in office in January 2029, he would be eighty-two years old. There are, of course, some people who could handle being president at the age of eighty-two, but I don’t get the impression that Donald Trump is one of them, especially since he is not exactly known for being in stellar physical health.

I think that the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 will most likely be a white man in his 40s or 50s who has previously served in the Senate and/or been the governor of a large state who will try to position himself as Trump’s natural successor, deliberately using Trumpist rhetoric and pandering to Trump’s base using white supremacy, misogyny, xenophobia, and conspiracy theories. Trump himself may or may not endorse this candidate.

I also think that we should bear in mind that Joe Biden is currently seventy-eight years old and, by 2024, he will be eighty-one. I will not be surprised at all if Biden announces that he will retire from office after a single term. If he does this, he will most likely endorse Kamala Harris as his successor, but she may not win the Democratic nomination, meaning it is still not even certain who the Democratic nominee for 2024 will be.